Stop Going After Independents and Start Rallying the Base

I’ve done hundreds of focus groups all around the country as part of my work, and in doing so I’ve learned a lot about American voters. Much of what I hear is depressing for someone like me, who has devoted her career to helping advance progressive causes. Just this year, I traveled to a town in the Midwest where I talked with a group of white “soft” Republicans, people who identify with the Republican Party or as Independents, but do not consider themselves strong partisans. Never in my career had I heard anyone—including conservatives—say they want to take down Social Security and Medicare (programs that historically have been revered in society and consistently get support from people across the political spectrum, including Republicans), but this group wanted to do just that. In fact, they wanted to tear down any semblance of a social safety net at all, preferring that individual families take responsibility for their own well-being, regardless of the circumstances. When I probed about sudden illness or disability that would prevent someone from working, this group suggested that families plan for such tragedies by saving money in advance or relying on family members to get them through those times.

 Because of my experience in focus groups, I’m rarely surprised by the things the President says or does—I see and hear the people that support him in these rooms, and that give him license to promote some of the most reprehensible ideas and policies our country has ever seen.

 I’ve thought a lot about what we can do to not only win in 2020, but advance more progressive policies all over the country, that ensure all families have the opportunity to thrive and the right to essential basics like healthcare and a job that can support a family.

 Many times the clients I work with believe that passing progressive policies necessitates the support of the “middle”—the Independents, or swing voters. Indeed, several campaigns I’ve worked on have been targeted toward Independents and a lot of money, time, and energy has been spent trying to figure out how to message to this audience.

 I’m here to tell you that this is the wrong strategy. Full stop.

 We are never going to win Independents for a couple of reasons—1, few people are actually Independent or swing voters—most lean one way or the other. And in today’s political world, people who identify as Independent tend to lean Republican but sometimes don’t want to admit it, depending on the audience that surrounds them. Secondly, Independents who lean Republican have vastly different values than progressives. Their understanding of the world is really different and does not lend itself to supporting a progressive ideology that envisions all people as equal and deserving of opportunities, regardless of their circumstances or color of their skin. Convincing them to think otherwise is simply futile.

 Where the opportunity really lies is in communicating to and rallying the base—people who already identify as progressive and believe in the values that are the bedrock of progressive policies.

 I was recently in the Southwest where I moderated a group of Millennial white progressives. This group was the total opposite of the voters I talked to in the Midwest—people talked about how they wouldn’t mind if their taxes increased, because everyone in a community has a responsibility to make sure other community members are taken care of. This group, white voters, also talked a lot about how they want candidates to talk about race—they get systemic racism and they want candidates who talk about how they are going to remedy that and how new policies are designed with people of color in mind.

 The group was a progressive political operative’s dream to hear.

 However, even though this group believed in all the right things, that does not mean they are going to vote on Election Day. It doesn’t mean they’re going to call their representatives, attend a protest, or even share social media posts—all the things we need to get people to do to advance a progressive policy agenda. These are the exact people we need to do such things, but we need to understand how to reach them and motivate them to take action.

 There is still a time and a place to go after Democratic-leaning Independents, but the goal is more so to neutralize them—to make sure they don’t take action against our cause. We’re probably not going to turn them into progressive activists, but we can make them think twice before they come out for Trump in 2020.

 This is where I think Democrats and progressives need to concentrate their dollars and their energy—communicating to and motivating the base. We cannot take them for granted (e.g. 2016) and we need to equip them with the tools they need to advance our causes.